Pleiades Technology Futures

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Reviews of new ideas, insights and tools

 

This where we give you our take on new ideas, insights and tools.  These typically take the form of book reviews, observations and announcements made in technical journals and the lay press, and announcements by companies related to research or products

 

 

 

The Extreme Future (James Canton, Ph.D.)

 

Dr. James Canton, CEO of The Institute of Global Futures is a futurist and author of "The Extreme Future".  In this book, he helps the reader understand what are the likely challenges and trends that the world will face in the next 5, 10 and 20 year timeframes.  A key observation is the convergence of four technologies; information, nanotechnology, biotechnology and neurotechnology, that will create new capabilities and also social stress. Individuals will each have to decide whether to adopt, reject, change or ignore the fruits of the inventions and social change the convergences of these technologies will bring.

 

This book covers a broad range of topics that are of global importance over the next few decades.  These cover a broad range from energy, the environment, life extension, immigration, security, cultural tolerance, the rise of China (and East Asia), and individual freedoms.  The complexity of these issues is likely overwhelming to the average citizen who is focused on the real needs of daily life.  This work one hand this is a great summary of the core issues facing humanity in the next few decades.  On the other hand, most will probably decide that there is little that they can do save where it is readily convenient to take little steps in what may hopefully be a helpful direction to escape the brunt of some of the negative consequences.  The lack of confidence in governments to make tough rational choices, unfettered by special interest benefits,  in collaboration as a world community is a deterrent to many for putting time and energy into first understanding and then taking action on even one of these issues let alone all of these concerns. 

 

Yet these core threats (and opportunities) are intertwined as we as a global community are intertwined.  Ignoring them is to invite disaster.  Dr. Canton has done a good job of setting the stage for appreciated the broad scope.  It is a book I will share with my nieces and nephews who are trying to plan their careers and discover their passions for shaping the future of humanity and our planet.




 

 

 

The Singularity is Near (Ray Kurzweil)

 

 

 

Ray Kurzweil has been recognized for his many innovations and achievements over the years as a technology innovator.  In the last five years he has been most visible in his work describing the accelerating rate of change that Man has produced as his tool-making skills have proliferated at exponential rates. This has become most evident in the 20th and 21st centuries as the rate of paradigm shifts is now on the order of a modest part of the human lifetime.  As such, these changes occur at shorter timeframes that our customary adaptation through education, career and retirement. 

 

The computing and networking power of machines is as the core of these changes that will stress Man to evolve in new ways.  This is one of Mr. Kurzweil's observations and he is proactively investing in radical life extension as just one of the consequences of the emerging convergence of man and his technology. (See his book Fantastic Voyage and http://www.rayandterry.com/)

 

The sobering observation of his extension of Moore's Law to the rise of artificial intelligence is that within just a few decades, the capabilities of our tools could equal or exceed our own in many aspects.  Since this is well within the 100-year lifespan that is suggested by many futurists and demographers, there is a real likelihood that the definition of Man will be severely tested over the next few decades.  And the "definition of marriage" debates of today will seem like small interruptions in the evolution of Man as information technology, biotechnology and nanotechnology continue exponential growth in capability.

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

The Strategy Paradox (Michael E. Raynor)

 

 

 I highly recommend Raynor’s work as a complement to his joint work with Clayton Christensen The Innovator’s Solution, David G. Thompson’s Blueprint to a Billion, and other works that address developing flexible, innovative organizations, such as Fast Innovation by Michael George. You will regain confidence that spending more time with scenario planning and real options will put your corporate strategy at a more efficient risk-reward location in the production possibility space for your industry. Raynor also describes how to better align Corporate Venture Capital investments so that strategic flexibility allows your CVC to do more than just serve as another investment tool for investing shareholder profits.  more . . .